Comparing Lap Times at MMSP

I've wondered for a while what the difference is between World Superbike bikes and AMA Superbike bikes. Are the World Superbike bikes faster, and by how much? Or is it mostly the riders?

Now that they've come to Miller Motorsports Park this year, I at least have some anecdotal evidence. AMA Superbike ran the entire course this year, instead of the outer course only, which the World Superbike guys ran. So I went back to last year's AMA data for Miller Motorsports Park to get my data.

In 2007, the top AMA Superbike Qualifying time was by Ben Spies, at 1:49.405. This year, the top World Superbike Qualifying time was by Carlos Checa at 1:48:193, putting Checa just about 1.2 seconds faster than last year's top qualifier.

Even more interesting is to take an average of the top 10. In last year's AMA Superbike qualifying, the average time of the top 10 qualifiers was 1:50.271. This year, the average time of the top 10 World Superbike qualifiers was 1:49.007, again about 1.2 seconds faster.

Another interesting comparison was to look at the slowest qualifying times. This year in World Superbike, the slowest qualifier qualified 29th at 1:52.601. Last year's 29th-place AMA Superbike qualifier logged a time of 1:58.232.

Until Ben Spies or Mat Mladin race World Superbike, we'll never know for sure how they compare to the likes of Troy Bayliss, Troy Corser, Carlos Checa, Nori Haga, and the other World Superbike folk. Mat Mladin, being from Australia, surely could have gone on to race World Superbike by now if he wished - he's won six AMA Superbike titles after all. Methinks he enjoys cherrypicking in AMA Superbike and so I won't expect him to move up soon. The rumor is that Spies will be moving on to MotoGP next year, not World Superbike. Personally, I'd sure like to see at least one good US rider in World Superbike, so we can find out if the World Superbike riders are really that much better, or is it just that the bikes are that much quicker.

Personally, I think the bikes are probably about one second faster. I have a very high opinion of World Superbike rider abilities. This especially shows up in the slower riders, as there was not nearly so much dropoff in times toward the end, which supports my other hypothesis, which is that World Superbike riders are generally more evenly-matched across the board.


UPDATE:
Freddy Spencer explained a bit in the World Superbike broadcast that the differences between the bikes are subtle; the main thing he mentioned was that World Superbike bikes are allowed to run more aggressive camshafts and timings than AMA Superbike bikes. I suppose that could explain about a second per lap advantage on a 3 mile circuit. But I'm guessing that, overall, World Superbike riders are much better across the board than in the AMA.

Two big questions though. First, why is it that the factory Rockstar Makita Suzuki team so completely dominates AMA Superbike (I don't think they've even lost a race in almost two years) but the bikes in World Superbike are much more evenly matched? And second, could Carlos Checa or Troy Bayliss win in AMA Superbike on a brand other than Suzuki?